TWO - STATE SOLUTION

Two State Brief

The Peace & Two-State Solution Tracker is a joint Palestinian-Israeli civil society initiative that translates the vision of two states into measurable realities by tracking policies, actions, and developments that either advance or undermine the prospects for ending the conflict and achieving a just political resolution.

Two State Index
2.5
/ 5 — Tension
Danger (0.5–1.5)Caution (1.5–3.75)Hope (3.75–5.0)
Since Ceasefire
What is this? the Index?
Two State Index
A single 0.5–5.0 score of how close the situation is to a viable two-state outcome. Below 1.5 is Danger, 1.5–3.75 is Caution, above 3.75 is Hope.
⚠️

This is a beta version. The underlying data is still being collected and is under active review and audit, so the numeric scores may not be final or fully accurate. However, the news and events referenced are accurate and drawn from verified public sources.

Key MatrixiHeadline figures tracked across the dashboard — each card cites its own source below the number.
Days Since Ceasefire Agreement Took EffectiReported violations or attacks do not by themselves mean the formally declared agreement has ended.
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In effect since 10 October 2025
Trump's 20-Point Peace PlaniPeace-plan progress · Current plan status across completed, active, and announced points.
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0 completed · 0 active · 0 announced
Main Players
Mediators—
Parties—
Stakeholders—
Reported Ceasefire ViolationsiA cumulative figure reported by the Gaza Government Media Office and reproduced by Al Jazeera Labs; it is not an independently maintained UN count. Gaza Gov't Media Office: — — Gaza Gov't Media Office. party-reported. Date the number applies to: Gaza Gov't Media Office Not independently verified ACLED (coded events): — — Not yet available.
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Two-State Solution Support
Palestinians—
No approved poll
Israelis—
No approved poll
Index Over TimeiTS-Brief calculated indicator, computed from tracked events — not an externally published percentage.

Tracked daily from the ceasefire?The formal pause in hostilities we use as the starting point of this timeline. onwards, so the headline number can be read as a trend?A single reading can be noise. We look at movement across multiple points before calling it a trend. rather than a single reading.

Now
2.5
Change
Not enough history yet
Reading
Real day-by-day tracking is just starting — check back soon for a trend.
Showing an approximate pattern — real tracked history is still accumulating and will replace this over the coming weeks.
Caution 1.5Jul 5Jul 23Aug 10Aug 29Sep 16Oct 5
Peace & Tension Signals
PositiveNeutralNegative
Diplomatic
Days ago

UN Security Council adopts Resolution 2803 backing the peace plan and mandating the international stabilization force

United Nations, New York Times, Trump Decisions
High impact
Analysis ↓
Economy
6 hours ago

Commercial slowdown pressures local stability and recovery financing

World Bank
Mounting pressure
Analysis ↓
Humanitarian
5 hours ago

UNRWA: 77% of Gaza residents still face food insecurity despite the ceasefire

OCHA
Mounting pressure
Analysis ↓
Governance
1 day ago

Board of Peace begins transitional-governance arrangements for Gaza

Reuters
Pivotal moment
Analysis ↓
Military
2 hours ago

Yellow-line violations persist near Israeli deployment areas

Maan Agency
Major obstacle
Analysis ↓
Reconstruction
4 days ago

Reconstruction starts slowly, with under 1% of rubble cleared after eight months

World Bank
Structural challenge
Analysis ↓
Security
2 days ago

Hamas disarmament file stalls as withdrawal and statehood conditions remain unresolved

Al Jazeera
Strategic obstacle
Analysis ↓
Research & Analysis
Policy analysis

A four-part framework for a negotiated two-state solution

Shaul Arieli’s presentation connects borders, Jerusalem, security, and refugees as one agreement rather than separate negotiating files.

Tamrur PolitographyShaul ArieliTamrur Politography · Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Research Group
Key Mediators & PartiesiTS-Brief calculated indicator, computed from tracked events — not an externally published percentage.
Mediators
3
EGY
Egypt
Mediator
Hosts security, crossings, and reconstruction arrangements
Very active
2 days ago
QAT
Qatar
Mediator
Tracks political channels, exchange arrangements, and humanitarian file
Very active
This week
TUR
Turkey
Mediator
Supports 20-point mediation channels and reconstruction arrangements
Active
3 days ago
Stakeholders
5
USA
United States
Lead stakeholder
Shapes guarantees, pressure, and the 20-point implementation sequence
Very active
This week
EU
European Union
Funder & partner
Supports funding, technical missions, and institutional-reform pathways
Active
This month
UN
United Nations
International mandate
Tracks multilateral legitimacy, stabilization coordination, and New York activity
Active
This week
KSA
Saudi Arabia
Regional stakeholder
Supports political horizon, Arab coordination, and financing alignment
Active
This month
JOR
Jordan
Regional stakeholder
Monitors stability, borders, and humanitarian files
Active
This week
Parties
3
ISR
Israel
Direct party
Central to ceasefire compliance, withdrawal sequencing, and security guarantees
Active
This week
PA
Palestinian Authority
Palestinian institution
Governance capacity and reform pathway are key to two-state implementation
Fragile
Today
HAM
Hamas
Direct party in Gaza
Disarmament, hostages, and security arrangements remain decisive plan conditions
Limited
This week
Current Level of Diplomatic Engagement
iTS-Brief calculated indicator, computed from tracked events — not an externally published percentage.
Mediators
Egypt, Qatar, Turkey — Not enough verified events yet to compute a score.
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Stakeholders
United States, EU, UN, Saudi Arabia, Jordan — Not enough verified events yet to compute a score.
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Parties
Israel, PA, Hamas — Not enough verified events yet to compute a score.
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Level of International Engagement
—
Not enough verified events yet to compute a score.
Global Alliance Index
—
Not enough verified events yet to compute a score.
20-Point Plan Implementation Timeline
Peace-plan progress overview
Peace-plan progress
CompletedIn progress—
Gaza Roadmap Implementation
Peace-plan progress overview
Peace-plan progress
CompletedIn progress—
AI Capabilities
AI INTELLIGENCE SUITE
Trend Analysis
Diplomatic activity & military escalation — real signal counts
Real data window
Diplomatic activity
Military escalation
853◆ Forecast zone
Military escalation average
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Awaiting data
Sharpest month-over-month change
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No significant change in current series
Highest correlation
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Awaiting data
AI Report Generator
REPORT BUILDER
Ready to generate
1 · Time Period
2 · Target Audience
3 · Focus (optional)
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Peace Analysis Engine
ASK ENGINE
Live analysis chat
Ask follow-ups, compare signals, and build a running analytical thread.
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Automatic overview — not a response to a question

The current Two State Index is 2.5/5 — classified as "Tension". The ceasefire has held for … days, but remains fragile. Positive drivers include the UN mandate under Resolution 2803 and minimum alignment among the main players. Negative factors include … reported violations, the disarmament deadlock, and slow reconstruction. Ask me a follow-up and I will keep the thread going.